Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
