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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.